2026 Midterm Forecast

By Christian Johnson

About

Control of the House

Race by race

All races

Race	Democrat	Republican	Forecast	Projection

A polls-only model: every poll is fit jointly with pollster house effects and each race's partisan lean and incumbency. Ranges are 80% intervals and allow for polls missing together, as much as they have in past elections. About the model. Polls from VoteHub; candidates and PVI from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA). The House map is schematic: one hex per district. Code and data.